The reign of comic book movies at the box office continued strong throughout 2016, with the slate of 7 mainstream CBMs pulling in approximately $5 Billion worldwide (on a total budget of just $1.2 Billion) and taking 6 of the Top 15 slots for the year. Overall, it was CBMs and family films (e.g., Finding Dory, Zootopia, Secret Life of Pets) that dominated the box office.
The feared slowdown or "superhero fatigue" has not yet materialized. At the beginning of 2016, I did an adequate (but not great) job with my 2016 CBM predictions -- I thought Deadpool would be huge, but I didn't realize how huge; I overestimated BvS and underestimated Civil War (which I kind of knew I was doing); and I was very close with my prediction for Suicide Squad. I give myself particular credit for my prediction about the sum total CBM performance -- I predicted $4.9 Billion total across the 7 CBMs and it looks like they are going to come in right at $5.0 Billion, so I had the size of the pie right, I just didn't portion it out perfectly.
Looking ahead to 2017, here are my box office predictions for worldwide gross. I based these numbers on past performance, trailers, social media buzz, competition in the release calendar, and my own gut instincts.
- The LEGO Batman Movie (WB, 2/10/2017) -- $610 Million
- Logan (Fox, 3/3/2017) -- $560 Million
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Marvel, 5/5/2017) -- $875 Million
- Wonder Woman (WB, 6/2/2017) -- $725 Million [EDIT: 2/6/17]
- Spider-Man Homecoming (Sony/Marvel, 7/7/2017) -- $995 Million
- Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox, 10/6/2017) -- $325 Million
- Thor: Ragnarok (Marvel, 11/3/2017) -- $610 Million [EDIT: 1/12/17]
- Justice League (WB, 11/17/2017) -- $1,015 Million
