The era of comic-book movies (CBMs), and specifically superhero CBMs, is still in full swing. In fact, I don't think it has peaked yet and as long as we keep getting highly engaging stories and diverse styles (I think Deadpool, Batman v Superman and Suicide Squad will all help keep things fresh), I think we can count on several more years of the genre dominating the movie box office.
2016 may be the best year yet for CBMs, surpassing even 2008 which contained the release of The Dark Knight and the launch of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. With the first CBM less than two weeks away, I'm going to record my predictions for the box office performances of the full slate. There are going to be some massive hits, but I don't think they can all be smash successes. These predictions are informed by past performance, my own gut instincts based on trailers I've seen and my interpretation of the release calendar (e.g., BvS doesn't have much competition for a full month), and social media analysis such as Variety's Digital Audience Ratings (which has BvS and Suicide Squad leading the crowded pack).
Here are my worldwide box office predictions for the 2016 CBMs, in release order:
- Deadpool (Fox, 2/12/2016) -- $430 Million
- Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (WB, 3/25/2016) -- $1,250 Million
- Captain America: Civil War (Marvel, 5/6/2016) -- $960 Million
- X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox, 5/27/2016) -- $670 Million
- TMNT: Out of the Shadows (Paramount, 6/3/2016) -- $390 Million
- Suicide Squad (WB, 8/5/2016) -- $700 Million
- Gambit (Fox, 10/7/2016) -- I predict this will get pushed into 2017
- Doctor Strange (Marvel, 11/4/2016) -- $470 Million
Here are the same predictions but arranged in performance order:
- Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice -- $1,250 Million
- Captain America: Civil War -- $960 Million
- Suicide Squad -- $700 Million
- X-Men: Apocalypse -- $670 Million
- Doctor Strange -- $470 Million
- Deadpool -- $430 Million
- TMNT: Out of the Shadows -- $390 Million
- Gambit -- I predict this will get pushed into 2017
Let me know what I got wrong in the comments or @ottensam on Twitter. You can also find more explanations of my predictions in this video.